How FHFA Broke FICO's Mortgage Standard

A 16.7x price increase on the mortgage credit score handed FHFA a target. What it means for FICO now.

Oct 17

4

2

Meta's ROIC Is About to Fall. Buy Meta Stock Anyway.

Incremental returns should decline through 2029 before rebounding. My base case still has it undervalued.

Oct 9

9

6

September 2026

What Meta's Muse Is Really Worth to Visa & Mastercard

3 billion users just got an AI agent with a wallet. The payoff for Visa and Mastercard is smaller and more defensive than it looks.

Sep 25

10

10

Incremental Insights #108

The best of what I read, listened to, and watched during the week.

Sep 20

3

Intuit’s Underlying Thesis Has Changed

What QuickBooks two new price tiers, Lite & Free, says about low-end disruption.

Sep 11

6

7

Incremental Insights #107

The best of what I read, listened to, and watched during the week

Sep 6

3

1

August 2026

Incremental Insights #106

The best of what I read, listened to, and watched during the week.

Aug 23

4

1

The Asset No AI Model Can Scrape

Three-quarters of it was never published anywhere and it took forty years to build.

Aug 15

4

1

Incremental Insights #105

The best fo what I read, listened to, and watched during the week.

Aug 2

4

July 2026

Incremental Insights #104

The best of what I read, listened to, and watched

Jul 19

1

1

Does Anthropic Have an Economic Moat?

Switching costs, barriers to entry, network effects run against a $965 billion valuation.

Jul 17

12

2

7

Two Spin-Offs, and Which Ones I kept

S&P Global's Mobility and Honeywell splits closed this month. Which ones I'm holding, buying, and selling.

Jul 10

14

6