Incremental Returns is a research letter for investors who want to own great businesses for a long time.
I write about quality companies. The kind with durable moats, high returns on capital, and management teams that compound shareholder value year after year. No day trading. No macro calls. No hot takes. Just patient research on businesses worth holding.
If you’re new here, this page is the fastest way to understand what I do and decide if it’s for you.
Start with this one post
If you read nothing else, read this:
Why Chris Hohn & TCI Own GE Aerospace
Chris Hohn runs one of the most concentrated, highest-returning hedge funds in the world. When he makes GE Aerospace a top position, it’s worth understanding why. This piece walks through the moat, the math, and the reason TCI sees a long runway most investors miss.
Then learn the framework
The TCI piece shows you what a great business looks like. This next one shows you how to value one:
Beyond DCF: Two Other Ways to Value High-ROIC Companies
DCF models break when you try to value a true compounder — the terminal value swallows the model and the assumptions stop being meaningful. This piece walks through two alternative approaches I actually use for high-ROIC businesses, with worked examples.
What you get as a free subscriber
I regularly publish research that’s free to read:
Quality business breakdowns. How companies like Otis, Apple, and S&P Global actually make money, and why their economics are so hard to replicate.
Investing frameworks. Practical tools you can apply to your own research, like the Beyond DCF piece above.
Industry deep dives. The structural dynamics behind monopolies, oligopolies, and the businesses that dominate each industry.
Want to see what paid looks like? Read this.
Every month, paid subscribers get a full deep dive on a single company. The factors that make it a quality business, the catalysts for price appreciation, the risks to the business, and my estimate of fair value.
I’ve removed the paywall on one of them so you can see exactly what you’d be getting:
The Alphabet Opportunity: Navigating Risks and Rewards
If that’s the kind of research you want in your inbox once a month, the paid tier is built for you.