Incremental Insights #92
The best of what I read, listened to, and watched during the week
The HALO Effect: Heavy Assets, Low Obsolescence
Capital-intensive stocks have outperformed capital-light peers by ~35% since 2025.
AI is compressing software moats while repricing hard-to-replicate physical assets like grids, pipelines, and industrial infrastructure upward.
ServiceNow: Deep Dive Analysis
ServiceNow is the workflow operating system for big enterprises with 98% renewals and strong free cash flow.
It too got caught up in the SaaSpocalypse but AI increases the need for a governed orchestration layer, not less.
Bayes and Base Rates: How History Can Guide Our Assessment of the Future
OpenAI’s $145B revenue target implies 108% CAGR over 5 years. Across ~18,900 observations of U.S. companies since 1950, zero have grown that fast from a $2-5B base.
Part Two: How Jeffrey Epstein Helped Build the Modern World
With the Epstein files slowly being released, we’re starting to see how truly connected he was. In part one and two, The Behind the Bastards crew look at how Epstein had a hand in the rise of Bitcoin and micro transactions in video games.
Part one is more back story on the people, like the Mighty Duck actor, who became Epstein’s connections to the world of crypto currencies.