Incremental Insights #91
The best of what I read, listened to, and watched during the week
From Glutted to Gutted
A Hormuz shutdown means the global economy is out 20M barrels/day. This loss is overwhelming quick supply responses, draining inventories, and pushing oil prices higher. Even stock releases and pipeline bypasses only soften the blow.
How To Tell There’s A Recession Coming, According To Sex Workers
Good luck explaining to your partner that you have to go to a brothel to gather some alternative economic coincident data.
There Are Only Two Paths Left for Software
Software’s middle lane is disappearing. CEOs have two credible paths: build AI-native products that add 10+ points of growth fast, or redesign the company for 40%+ true operating margins (including stock comp). “A little of both” won’t survive.
Fighting Words: The Energy Transition in 2026
Michael Cembalest covers the highlights from his team’s big 2026 energy report. It covers data center energy demands, the feasibility of small modular nuclear reactors, and obviously Iran.