Incremental Insights #89
The best of what I read, listened to, and watched during the week
Chartbook 436 Unseasonal war. How the US-Israeli war on Iran threatens the global agricultural cycle.
LNG disruptions and shipping chokepoints are spiking urea prices right when fertilizer needs to move. The biggest risk is not for rich countries, but for smallholder farming economies at the end of the chain.
Can Advanced AI Lead to Negative Economic Growth?
AI can raise potential output while lowering realized GDP if automation shifts income away from high-spending workers toward low-spending capital owners, causing demand to collapse
5 Lessons I Learned from Li Lu, the “Chinese Warren Buffett”
Long-term investing edge comes from thinking like an owner, staying temperamentally patient, and waiting to act decisively when a rare high-conviction opportunity offers a wide margin of safety.
Rory Johnston on How oil Could Surge to Over $200 a Barrel
A good Odd Lots episode breaking down all the different scenarios regarding the oil market. How the different oil markets and products heavily dependent on oil break down. And who benefits the most and who is harmed the most the longer the Strait of Hormuz is closed.