Incremental Insights #54
A weekly collection of mostly investment related content
All-Time Highs in the Stock Market are Usually Followed by More All-Time Highs
Investing at all-time market highs has historically produced BETTER returns (15%) than investing on any random day (12%)?
New highs typically cluster during bull markets and lead to more highs. While some precede crashes, most signal continuing momentum.
Pre-Mortem Analysis: A Step-by-Step Guide
A pre-mortem analysis helps you anticipate disaster scenarios by imagining your investment has already failed, then working backward to identify why.
This forward-looking technique reduces overconfidence, enhances risk assessment, and help you avoid committing more capital to a losing position.
Toast: A Recipe for Building a System of Record
Toast conquered the restaurant industry by starting with the most critical workflow (point-of-sale) and expanding into a full operating system, growing into a $25B company.
Their playbook — controlling key data, solving painful problems, building a platform ecosystem — offers a blueprint for AI startups looking to transform automated workflows into comprehensive systems of record.
Stablecoins Might Revolutionise Payments, But What if They Don’t?
While stablecoins promise revolutionary $1tn+ growth and frictionless global payments, JPMorgan's sobering analysis suggests a more modest $500bn by 2028.
With 88% of current usage merely lubricating crypto trading rather than solving real-world problems, are we witnessing another case of blockchain hype outpacing practical utility?
Credit Card Arbitrage
We’ve probably all heard of the simple tricks and hacks to maximize travel rewards but this interview with Matt from Miles Earned and Burned takes it to a whole new level.
I loved the story of spending over $300K to buy stock gift cards at Stockpile for a 10-20% discount, buying a short-term treasury ETF like VGSH to reduce price volatility, and then redeeming the stock certificates 3-4 days later, paying back his credit cards, and earning millions of miles.